MVV Maastricht 3-2 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 21 Oct 2025

📅21/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
18%
3.45
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
27%
2.89
6+ Goals
13%
8.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.18
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
13%
5.43
X/2
14%
6.45
X/X
6%
5.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.55
2/2
18%
4.14
2/X
5%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.0pp
18%
Draw
25%
-7.7pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+5.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.60/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.90
+35% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
16.0 Crosses 21.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Vitesse
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.41 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
268 Passes 292
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Vitesse Vitesse 1-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
06.12.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
3-2
AWAY Vitesse
0.94 xG 1.69
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 5
268 Passes 424
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 37
7 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht nicked a narrow win over Vitesse 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 44% / 18% / 39% — and on the day MVV Maastricht made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 41% of the ball to Vitesse's 59%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 0.94 to 1.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vitesse.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Vitesse led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.50 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse?

MVV Maastricht 3-2 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 44%, draw 18%, Vitesse 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MVV Maastricht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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