Morpeth Town 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.4pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Gainsborough Trinity EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.33/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.93
-7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morpeth Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gainsborough Trinity
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
4 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2024 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 3-1 HT 1-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
13.01.2024 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 0-2 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
09.09.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
14.01.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
25.10.2022 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 1-1 HT 0-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
04.12.2021 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Morpeth Town vs Gainsborough Trinity
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morpeth Town nicked a narrow win over Gainsborough Trinity 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Morpeth Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morpeth Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Morpeth Town and 0.67 for Gainsborough Trinity.

What was the final score of Morpeth Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?

Morpeth Town 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity in the England - Non League Premier on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morpeth Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gainsborough Trinity win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Morpeth Town 32%, draw 29%, Gainsborough Trinity 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Gainsborough Trinity) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gainsborough Trinity) ✓ BTTS No
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