Sassuolo 2-1 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.33
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.35
X/2
11%
9.07
X/X
9%
5.19
2/1
8%
23.0
2/2
11%
6.57
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.1
Value flag · 2/X at 14.1 — our 11% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 26%
+13% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -3%
3.10/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.43
+125% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 77%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
13.7 Crosses 18.5
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Palermo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 294
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.01.2017 Sassuolo Sassuolo 4-1 HT 2-1 Palermo Palermo İTA
21.08.2016 Palermo Palermo 0-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
07.02.2016 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2 HT 1-1 Palermo Palermo İTA
23.09.2015 Palermo Palermo 0-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
02.05.2015 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTA
13.12.2014 Palermo Palermo 2-1 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
2-1
AWAY Palermo
2.11 xG 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
349 Passes 322
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo edged past Palermo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sassuolo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sassuolo had 50% of the ball to Palermo's 50%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.11 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sassuolo and 0.83 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Palermo?

Sassuolo 2-1 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 45%, draw 28%, Palermo 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
21 Dec 2024
17:00 Carrarese vs Cosenza Calcio Analysis →
17:00 Mantova vs Frosinone Analysis →
17:00 FC Bari 1908 vs Südtirol Analysis →
19:15 Modena vs Pisa Analysis →
19:15 Cittadella vs Reggiana Analysis →
19:15 Catanzaro vs Spezia Analysis →