Sestri Levante 2-1 Gubbio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.51
Over 2.5
47%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.7pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.3pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Gubbio EU Bookmakers 40%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
0.50/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.03
-55% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
280 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sestri Levante
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Gubbio
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 0-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
22.03.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 3-1 HT 1-1 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
19.11.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 5-2 HT 1-1 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sestri Levante
2-1
AWAY Gubbio
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sestri Levante vs Gubbio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestri Levante squeezed past Gubbio 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Sestri Levante found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sestri Levante had 46% of the ball to Gubbio's 54%, shots finished 11-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gubbio led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sestri Levante and 2.33 for Gubbio.

What was the final score of Sestri Levante vs Gubbio?

Sestri Levante 2-1 Gubbio in the Italy - Serie C on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sestri Levante vs Gubbio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sestri Levante win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Sestri Levante 35%, draw 30%, Gubbio 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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