Gubbio 1-0 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
18.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.0pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 19%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.72/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.89
+0% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
394 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Sestri Levante
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.03.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 3-1 HT 1-1 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
19.11.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 5-2 HT 1-1 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
1-0
AWAY Sestri Levante
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gubbio nicked a narrow win over Sestri Levante 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gubbio as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gubbio had 53% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 47%, shots finished 13-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Gubbio and 2.50 for Sestri Levante.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Sestri Levante?

Gubbio 1-0 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gubbio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 53%, draw 26%, Sestri Levante 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gubbio), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gubbio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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