Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-3 Paredes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.54
Over 2.5
46%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.99
No
46%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
61%
-6.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
39%
+6.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
46%
+7.5pp
46%
BTTS No
54%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Paredes EU Bookmakers 37%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.00/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.68
-19% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Paredes
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.09.2025 Paredes Paredes 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
29.04.2023 Paredes Paredes 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
08.04.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 0-1 HT 0-1 Paredes Paredes POR3
13.01.2023 Paredes Paredes 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes II
1-3
AWAY Paredes
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Paredes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paredes saw off Vitoria Guimaraes II 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Paredes made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes II had 62% of the ball to Paredes's 38%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Paredes led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes II and 0.75 for Paredes.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Paredes?

Vitoria Guimaraes II 1-3 Paredes in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Paredes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes II win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes II 37%, draw 30%, Paredes 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes II), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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