Amarante 3-2 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
31%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.0pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 43%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
0.70/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.65
-43% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
269 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fafe
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
10.10.2025 Fafe Fafe 3-0 HT 1-0 Amarante Amarante POR3
13.04.2025 Fafe Fafe 1-1 HT 0-0 Amarante Amarante POR3
16.02.2025 Amarante Amarante 1-3 HT 1-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
18.01.2025 Amarante Amarante 0-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
06.10.2024 Fafe Fafe 4-1 HT 2-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
08.09.2024 Fafe Fafe 1-4 HT 1-3 Amarante Amarante POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
3-2
AWAY Fafe
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante edged past Fafe 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fafe at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amarante had 47% of the ball to Fafe's 53%, shots finished 10-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fafe led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Amarante and 2.00 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Fafe?

Amarante 3-2 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Amarante 29%, draw 30%, Fafe 41%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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