Fafe 1-1 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.8
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.6
Over 2.5
34%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
52%
-12.7pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.4pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
59%
+7.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
41%
-7.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.3pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.08/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.02
-21% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +34%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
263 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Amarante
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Amarante Amarante 1-3 HT 1-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
18.01.2025 Amarante Amarante 0-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
06.10.2024 Fafe Fafe 4-1 HT 2-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
08.09.2024 Fafe Fafe 1-4 HT 1-3 Amarante Amarante POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
1-1
AWAY Amarante
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe and Amarante couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 29% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Fafe had 55% of the ball to Amarante's 45%, shots finished 13-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fafe had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fafe and 1.50 for Amarante.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Amarante?

Fafe 1-1 Amarante in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fafe 39%, draw 32%, Amarante 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fafe), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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