Amarante 1-3 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
0.31/0.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.52
-77% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -51%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
210 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Fafe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.01.2025 Amarante Amarante 0-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
06.10.2024 Fafe Fafe 4-1 HT 2-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
08.09.2024 Fafe Fafe 1-4 HT 1-3 Amarante Amarante POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
1-3
AWAY Fafe
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe beat Amarante 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fafe as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amarante had 40% of the ball to Fafe's 60%, shots finished 5-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Amarante and 1.67 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Fafe?

Amarante 1-3 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Amarante 30%, draw 28%, Fafe 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
16 Feb 2025
18:00 Atletico CP vs Sporting CP II Analysis →
18:00 Sao Joao Ver vs Vilaverdense Analysis →
18:00 Sanjoanense vs Anadia Analysis →
18:00 Sporting Braga II vs Trofense Analysis →
18:00 Oliveira Hospital vs Lusitania Analysis →