Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Aston Villa
İNP
0-2
HT 0-1
Aston Villa
İNP
Aston Villa 2-1 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over Chelsea 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Aston Villa found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Aston Villa had 52% of the ball to Chelsea's 48%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 2.33 to 2.30.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aston Villa and 1.33 for Chelsea.
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Aston Villa 2-1 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 38%, draw 30%, Chelsea 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.