Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Unterhaching — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 22 Feb 2025

Erzgebirge Aue
1-0 HT 1-0
Unterhaching
📅22/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.03
Over 2.5
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.93
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.19
6+ Goals
12%
10.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.19 — our 27% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.33
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2
8%
8.67
X/X
7%
5.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.1
2/2
17%
6.45
2/X
8%
14.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
32%
Away Win
23%
+8.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
45%
-3.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
55%
+3.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzgebirge Aue v Unterhaching — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Unterhaching EU Bookmakers 27%
+19% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.83/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.77
+3% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
473 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
– Crosses 17.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Unterhaching
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
405 Passes 244
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
30 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
20.09.2024 Unterhaching Unterhaching 2-2 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
20.04.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 1-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
11.11.2023 Unterhaching Unterhaching 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
19.01.2007 Unterhaching Unterhaching 1-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
13.08.2006 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL2
19.02.2006 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 HT 0-1 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL2

Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Unterhaching — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-0
AWAY Unterhaching
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
469 Passes 245
84% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue nicked a narrow win over Unterhaching 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 61% of the ball to Unterhaching's 39%, shots finished 15-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.83 for Unterhaching.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Unterhaching in the Germany - 3rd Division on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Unterhaching?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 46%, draw 22%, Unterhaching 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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