Banga Gargzdai 2-2 Zalgiris Vilnius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - Super Cup, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.09
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
53%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 27% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
17%
+3.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
53%
Away Win
60%
-6.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Banga Gargzdai EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 64%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Banga Gargzdai
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 0-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LITA
26.06.2024 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-2 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
01.05.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-2 HT 1-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
13.03.2024 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 1-4 HT 1-2 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
24.01.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 5-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai HAZ
03.09.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 HT 1-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Banga Gargzdai
2-2
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Banga Gargzdai vs Zalgiris Vilnius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Banga Gargzdai and Zalgiris Vilnius couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Zalgiris Vilnius at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Banga Gargzdai had 40% of the ball to Zalgiris Vilnius's 60%, shots finished 11-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Banga Gargzdai and 2.67 for Zalgiris Vilnius.

What was the final score of Banga Gargzdai vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Banga Gargzdai 2-2 Zalgiris Vilnius in the Lithuania - Super Cup on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Banga Gargzdai vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Banga Gargzdai 20%, draw 27%, Zalgiris Vilnius 53%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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