Crawley Town 1-0 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.41
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
13%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 29% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.1
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
17%
5.21
X/2
13%
6.67
X/X
10%
4.76
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
13%
4.56
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
0.99/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.11
-11% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
321 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 71%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
16.0 Crosses 15.9
3.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
313 Passes 257
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2024 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
05.12.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İNTK
09.08.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İNLK
08.03.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
04.09.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
14.08.2018 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
1-0
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.93 xG 0.47
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 1
358 Passes 219
80% Pass Accuracy 65%
18 Box Touches 10
6 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town squeezed past Bristol Rovers 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Crawley Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 56% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 44%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.93 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Crawley Town's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol Rovers led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Crawley Town and 1.00 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Crawley Town 1-0 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 42%, draw 25%, Bristol Rovers 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crawley Town), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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