Galler 3-1 Kazakistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.32
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.97
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
9.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 27% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.53
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
20.65
X/1
21%
3.71
X/2
8%
18.1
X/X
4%
7.1
2/1
9%
23.0
2/2
7%
16.2
2/X
8%
24.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-9.6pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.9pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.8pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galler EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Kazakistan EU Bookmakers 14%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.50/0.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.43/2.76
+7% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -32%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
467 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 70%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.2
19.4 Crosses 9.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galler
3-1
AWAY Kazakistan
1.96 xG 1.03
72% Ball Possession 28%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
629 Passes 203
92% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Galler vs Kazakistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galler beat Kazakistan 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Galler as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Galler had 72% of the ball to Kazakistan's 28%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.96 to 1.03.

What was the final score of Galler vs Kazakistan?

Galler 3-1 Kazakistan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galler vs Kazakistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galler win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Galler 61%, draw 20%, Kazakistan 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galler) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Galler) ✗ BTTS No
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