Ekvador 2-1 Venezuela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
13%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.6
No
63%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 34% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.57
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
4%
23.0
X/1
23%
3.48
X/2
3%
19.1
X/X
7%
5.6
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
7%
19.4
2/X
10%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
71%
-5.8pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.0pp
13%
Away Win
9%
+3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
34%
+2.4pp
63%
BTTS No
66%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvador EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezuela EU Bookmakers 12%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.45/0.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.92
-31% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +10%
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
417 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 71%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.3
22.8 Crosses 13.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekvador
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Venezuela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.34 xG 0.92
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
347 Passes 269
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.06.2024 Ekvador Ekvador 1-2 HT 1-0 Venezuela Venezuela AKU
17.11.2023 Venezuela Venezuela 0-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
12.11.2021 Ekvador Ekvador 1-0 HT 1-0 Venezuela Venezuela Güney Amerika - DK Elemeler
10.10.2021 Venezuela Venezuela 2-1 HT 1-1 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
21.06.2021 Venezuela Venezuela 2-2 HT 0-1 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
02.06.2019 Venezuela Venezuela 1-1 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvador
2-1
AWAY Venezuela
2.68 xG 1.05
71% Ball Possession 29%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
512 Passes 167
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ekvador vs Venezuela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ekvador squeezed past Venezuela 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ekvador as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ekvador had 71% of the ball to Venezuela's 29%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.68 to 1.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ekvador's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venezuela led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ekvador and 1.17 for Venezuela.

What was the final score of Ekvador vs Venezuela?

Ekvador 2-1 Venezuela in the World Cup Qualifiers on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvador vs Venezuela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ekvador win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Ekvador 65%, draw 22%, Venezuela 13%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ekvador) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ekvador) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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