Ekvador vs Venezuela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ekvador v Venezuela — Team-Based Signals
Ekvador vs Venezuela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Ekvador
DKE
1-0
HT 1-0
Venezuela
Güney Amerika - DK Elemeler
2-1
HT 1-1
Ekvador
DKE
2-2
HT 0-1
Ekvador
AKU
1-1
HT 1-0
Ekvador
HAZ
Ekvador 2-1 Venezuela — Actual Match Statistics
Ekvador squeezed past Venezuela 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ekvador as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Ekvador had 71% of the ball to Venezuela's 29%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.68 to 1.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ekvador's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venezuela led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ekvador and 1.17 for Venezuela.
What was the final score of Ekvador vs Venezuela?
Ekvador 2-1 Venezuela in the World Cup Qualifiers on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ekvador vs Venezuela?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ekvador win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Ekvador 65%, draw 22%, Venezuela 13%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ekvador) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.