Karadağ 3-1 Cebelitarık — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.59
Over 2.5
66%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.75
No
48%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.48
2-3 Goals
32%
2.0
4-5 Goals
33%
2.55
6+ Goals
17%
5.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.16
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
4%
34.5
X/1
22%
3.66
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
10%
12.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
32.0
2/2
3%
34.5
2/X
5%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 8% vs market 0.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
82%
-12.4pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.8pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+4.6pp
34%
Under 2.5
35%
-0.8pp
66%
Over 2.5
65%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
32%
+20.0pp
48%
BTTS No
68%
-20.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karadağ EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Cebelitarık EU Bookmakers 9%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
3.51/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/4.59
+45% / -63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -51%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
437 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 80%
45.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.2
37.0 Crosses 3.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karadağ
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Cebelitarık
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
3.29 xG 0.42
72% Ball Possession 29%
24 Total Shots 2
9 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 0
624 Passes 210
88% Pass Accuracy 69%
43 Box Touches 4
30 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2021 Cebelitarık Cebelitarık 0-3 HT 0-2 Karadağ Karadağ DKE
27.03.2021 Karadağ Karadağ 4-1 HT 2-1 Cebelitarık Cebelitarık DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karadağ
3-1
AWAY Cebelitarık
3.23 xG 1.25
66% Ball Possession 34%
25 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
335 Passes 132
82% Pass Accuracy 63%
51 Box Touches 6
32 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Karadağ vs Cebelitarık
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karadağ saw off Cebelitarık 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karadağ as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Karadağ had 66% of the ball to Cebelitarık's 34%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 3.23 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Karadağ had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Karadağ and 0.50 for Cebelitarık.

What was the final score of Karadağ vs Cebelitarık?

Karadağ 3-1 Cebelitarık in the World Cup Qualifiers on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karadağ vs Cebelitarık?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karadağ win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Karadağ 70%, draw 18%, Cebelitarık 12%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karadağ), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karadağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DKE More World Cup Qualifiers
22 Mar 2025
00:00 Ekvador vs Venezuela Analysis →
00:00 Etiyopya vs Mısır Analysis →
00:00 Gine vs Somali Analysis →
00:30 Nijer vs Fas Analysis →
02:30 Uruguay vs Arjantin Analysis →
17:00 Lihtenştayn vs Kuzey Makedonya Analysis →