Pro Patria 1-4 Lecco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
3.98
6+ Goals
8%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 34% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.7pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pro Patria EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecco EU Bookmakers 49%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.82/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.87
-22% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pro Patria
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Lecco
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.11.2025 Lecco Lecco 1-0 HT 1-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
22.02.2025 Lecco Lecco 2-1 HT 0-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
12.10.2024 Pro Patria Pro Patria 2-1 HT 0-1 Lecco Lecco İTC
08.04.2023 Lecco Lecco 2-1 HT 1-0 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
04.12.2022 Pro Patria Pro Patria 2-0 HT 0-0 Lecco Lecco İTC
01.05.2022 Lecco Lecco 0-2 HT 0-1 Pro Patria Pro Patria İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pro Patria
1-4
AWAY Lecco
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 13
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pro Patria vs Lecco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecco cruised past Pro Patria 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lecco as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pro Patria had 46% of the ball to Lecco's 54%, shots finished 11-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pro Patria and 1.00 for Lecco.

What was the final score of Pro Patria vs Lecco?

Pro Patria 1-4 Lecco in the Italy - Serie C on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pro Patria vs Lecco?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lecco win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Pro Patria 31%, draw 25%, Lecco 44%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lecco) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lecco) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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