CA Penarol 3-1 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.3
Draw
15%
4.49
Away
12%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.71
Over 2.5
54%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.75
No
56%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
47%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
3%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
72%
+0.7pp
15%
Draw
19%
-3.8pp
12%
Away Win
8%
+3.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
55%
-8.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
45%
+8.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
32%
+11.9pp
56%
BTTS No
68%
-11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 11%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.72/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.86
-19% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 195 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cerro
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.10.2025 Cerro Cerro 2-0 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
28.06.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
28.04.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 2-0 Cerro Cerro URU
23.09.2024 Cerro Cerro 0-5 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
19.08.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
3-1
AWAY Cerro
61% Ball Possession 39%
23 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol beat Cerro 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CA Penarol had 61% of the ball to Cerro's 39%, shots finished 23-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for CA Penarol and 0.67 for Cerro.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Cerro?

CA Penarol 3-1 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 73%, draw 15%, Cerro 12%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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22 Mar 2026
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