Progreso 0-1 Boston River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 22 Mar 2026

📅22/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.7pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Boston River EU Bookmakers 39%
+9% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.40/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.05
+23% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Boston River
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2025 Boston River Boston River 2-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
19.06.2025 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 1-0 Boston River Boston River URU
09.03.2025 Progreso Progreso 2-2 HT 1-0 Boston River Boston River URU
16.10.2024 Boston River Boston River 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
13.04.2024 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 1-0 Boston River Boston River URU
08.11.2021 Boston River Boston River 0-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-1
AWAY Boston River
57% Ball Possession 43%
5 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Boston River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boston River nicked a narrow win over Progreso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Boston River found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Progreso had 57% of the ball to Boston River's 43%, shots finished 5-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Progreso and 0.83 for Boston River.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Boston River?

Progreso 0-1 Boston River in the Uruguay - Premier League on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Boston River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Progreso 36%, draw 29%, Boston River 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Progreso), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
22 Mar 2026
01:30 CA Penarol vs Cerro Analysis →
16:00 Juventud vs Albion Analysis →