Minnesota United 3-2 St. Louis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 22 May 2025

📅22/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.3pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis EU Bookmakers 34%
+39% / +39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+50% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.5 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
3-2
AWAY St. Louis
1.68 xG 1.62
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 12
11 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
307 Passes 388
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs St. Louis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United edged past St. Louis 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 23% / 36% — and on the day Minnesota United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Minnesota United had 44% of the ball to St. Louis's 56%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.68 to 1.62.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs St. Louis?

Minnesota United 3-2 St. Louis in the USA - Open Cup on 22/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs St. Louis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 41%, draw 23%, St. Louis 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Minnesota United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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