Orlando City 2-3 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 22 May 2025

📅22/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.21
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 28% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.52
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
15%
4.52
X/2
8%
8.29
X/X
13%
4.89
2/1
7%
24.2
2/2
12%
6.41
2/X
8%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 28%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.57/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.20
-35% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
47.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
34.3 Crosses 20.8
3.7 Yellow Cards 5.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Nashville SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.22 xG 0.79
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
403 Passes 288
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 3-0 HT 2-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
18.07.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-3 HT 0-2 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
08.11.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
31.10.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 1-0 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
05.10.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
02.04.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 0-2 HT 0-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
2-3
AWAY Nashville SC
1.17 xG 0.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
398 Passes 373
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC squeezed past Orlando City 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Orlando City at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Orlando City had 52% of the ball to Nashville SC's 48%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.17 to 0.20 — the balance of chances actually favoured Orlando City.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Orlando City and 0.33 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs Nashville SC?

Orlando City 2-3 Nashville SC in the USA - Open Cup on 22/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 43%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Orlando City) ✗ Under 2.5
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