Philadelphia Union 4-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 22 May 2025

📅22/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.03
No
47%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.69
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
18.65
X/1
18%
3.81
X/2
7%
15.4
X/X
11%
6.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
24.2
2/2
6%
13.75
2/X
9%
21.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.2 — our 15% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.6pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.0pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
45%
+8.2pp
47%
BTTS No
55%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.46/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.33
-37% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +68%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
38.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
35.0 Crosses 11.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
4-1
AWAY Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2.93 xG 0.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
411 Passes 237
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union ran out comfortable winners over Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 60% of the ball to Pittsburgh Riverhounds's 40%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.93 to 0.19.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Philadelphia Union 4-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the USA - Open Cup on 22/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 55%, draw 27%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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