Fagiano Okayama 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 22 Jun 2024

📅22/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
19.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-11.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.3pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.1pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.32/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.67
-37% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
282 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
3W-1D-2L
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
282 Passes 445
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.03.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
08.10.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
21.05.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
28.08.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
15.05.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
18.07.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama edged past ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fagiano Okayama as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 61% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 39%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.67 for ThespaKusatsu Gunma.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the Japan - J2 League on 22/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 48%, draw 27%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5
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