ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.71
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
49%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
31%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+6.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
49%
Away Win
57%
-8.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 61%
+1% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
0.80/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.59
-21% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -37%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
445 Passes 282
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.10.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
21.05.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
28.08.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 0-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
15.05.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
18.07.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
21.04.2021 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-2
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
54% Ball Possession 46%
5 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama edged past ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fagiano Okayama as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 54% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 46%, shots finished 5-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 0.50 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Fagiano Okayama?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J2 League on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 24%, draw 27%, Fagiano Okayama 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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