Karabağ 0-1 Sumqayıt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 22 Aug 2025

📅22/08/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
13%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
27%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
65%
-0.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.1pp
13%
Away Win
15%
-1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
2.36/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.37
+29% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +17%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sumqayıt
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
04.05.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
03.03.2025 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-2 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
16.12.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 5-0 HT 3-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
06.10.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
25.02.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
08.12.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 1-6 HT 1-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Sumqayıt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sumqayıt edged past Karabağ 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Karabağ at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Karabağ and 0.17 for Sumqayıt.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Sumqayıt?

Karabağ 0-1 Sumqayıt in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 22/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Sumqayıt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 64%, draw 23%, Sumqayıt 13%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
22 Aug 2025
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