Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — Germany - Super Cup, 22 Aug 2026

Borussia Dortmund
vs
Bayern Münih
📅22/08/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
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Germany - Super Cup – 2026/2027

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.87
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
57%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
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Total Goals
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STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

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iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
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Team-Based Signals — members only
The why behind every prediction: how each side performs against the bookmaker, expected goals, attack & defence versus the league, and the on-pitch signals below.
  • Team Performance vs Market
  • Expected Goals — scored / conceded
  • Attack / Defense vs League Average
  • Possession · Total Shots · Shots on Target
  • Corners · Passes · Box Touches · Crosses · Cards
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Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.13 xG 2.26
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 526
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
18.10.2025 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
12.04.2025 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
30.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.03.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
PREVIEW Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih
IDDAAKOLIK MATCH PREVIEW

Unusually for an away side, Bayern Münih carry the stronger numbers into this one.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih lead the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Borussia Dortmund against 2.00 for Bayern Münih.

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Kick-off Time

Borussia Dortmund play Bayern Münih in the Germany - Super Cup on 22/08/2026, kick-off 21:30 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Match Prediction & Odds

Our model's prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih is an Bayern Münih win at about 56% probability, priced 1.64 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Borussia Dortmund 22%, draw 21%, Bayern Münih 56%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

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