Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.69
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
58%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.96
Over Pick
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.36
No
38%
2.87
Total Goals
0-1
20%
6.79
2-3
35%
2.16
4-5
31%
2.38
6+
14%
4.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.0
1/2
10%
17.7
1/X
5%
14.05
X/1
7%
9.49
X/2
17%
4.78
X/X
11%
7.1
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
30%
2.1
2/X
5%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 17.7 — our 10% vs market 3.2%. Landed.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih The Market 59%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -4%
1.41/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/1.30
+13% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -27%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 464 · 84%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.6
15.6 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.23 xG 2.28
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
342 Passes 518
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2025 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
12.04.2025 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
30.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.03.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 3-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2-3
AWAY Bayern Münih
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
206 Passes 512
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
REVIEW Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Bayern Münih shaded a tight game against Borussia Dortmund 3-2 on their travels. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Borussia Dortmund had 33% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 67%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.17 for Bayern Münih.

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Result & Final Score

Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 21%, draw 21%, Bayern Münih 58%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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