Hoffenheim 0-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.53
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.9
Over
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.2
2-3
38%
1.74
4-5
25%
3.42
6+
11%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.91
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.35
X/1
26%
3.84
X/2
7%
11.35
X/X
8%
5.46
2/1
9%
23.1
2/2
8%
9.75
2/X
5%
18.55
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim The Market 66%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli The Market 20%
+4% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
2.07/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.61
+21% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +31%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
384 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 70%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.1 Crosses 15.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
2W-2D-2L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.25 xG 1.34
59% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
458 Passes 288
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
19.10.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
14.03.2025 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
02.11.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
23.01.2011 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
28.08.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
0-1
AWAY St. Pauli
2.80 xG 0.77
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
455 Passes 208
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
41 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

St. Pauli found just enough to beat Hoffenheim 1-0 on the road.

Our model won't enjoy this one — Hoffenheim at 62% was the clear read, and the result ignored it. Over a season these leads pay; on a single Tuesday, anything can happen.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 53% for over 2.5, 52% on both teams scoring. The market went further still — the BTTS-no price closed at 1.76, about 57%.

By the numbers, Hoffenheim had 65% of the ball to St. Pauli's 35%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.80 to 0.77 — by the quality of chances, Hoffenheim deserved more.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.17 for St. Pauli.

Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli Result & Final Score

Hoffenheim 0-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 62%, draw 19%, St. Pauli 19%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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