Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Feb 2026

Bayer Leverkusen
1-1 HT 0-0
Mainz 05
📅28/02/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
19%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.18
Over Pick
63%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
17%
4.16
2-3
39%
1.84
4-5
28%
2.86
6+
16%
8.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.37
X/2
7%
9.41
X/X
10%
5.75
2/1 ✗
11%
20.65
2/2
7%
6.95
2/X
6%
15.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Bayer Leverkusen v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen The Market 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 The Market 25%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.88/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/2.01
-11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
427 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.8 Crosses 14.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.88 xG 1.45
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
499 Passes 271
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
18.10.2025 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-4 HT 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.05.2025 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
14.01.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
23.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
30.09.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.02.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1-1
AWAY Mainz 05
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
641 Passes 284
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
REVIEW Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05 finished all square at 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our model won't enjoy this one — Bayer Leverkusen at 59% was the clear read, and the result ignored it. Over a season these leads pay; on a single Tuesday, anything can happen. The goals card split: both teams to score (59%) came in, over 2.5 goals (63%) didn't.

By the numbers, Bayer Leverkusen had 66% of the ball to Mainz 05's 34%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.50 for Mainz 05.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Result & Final Score

Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 59%, draw 22%, Mainz 05 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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