Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
42%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.51
Over Pick
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.4
No
49%
2.73
Total Goals
0-1
28%
5.31
2-3
35%
1.99
4-5
25%
2.56
6+
12%
5.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.27
1/2
10%
24.2
1/X
9%
12.15
X/1
11%
5.98
X/2
10%
6.56
X/X
11%
5.95
2/1
7%
22.45
2/2
22%
3.78
2/X
5%
12.3
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen The Market 38%
-7% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +19%
1.52/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.54
-26% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
22.1 Crosses 16.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.05 xG 1.57
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
304 Passes 489
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.01.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
23.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
30.09.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.02.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
27.08.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-3 HT 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
18.02.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-2 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
2-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
3.08 xG 1.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
20 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
241 Passes 304
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 6
REVIEW Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. The 1-0 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 51% and both teams to score at 51%. At 1.40 (~71%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

By the numbers, Mainz 05 had 48% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 52%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 3.08 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mainz 05 and 2.17 for Bayer Leverkusen.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Result & Final Score

Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 32%, draw 26%, Bayer Leverkusen 42%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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