Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Mainz 05 4-3 on the road. Half-time: 1-3. With 7 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Bayer Leverkusen found the edge the numbers couldn't. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came home.
Under the surface, Mainz 05 had 42% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 58%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.66 to 3.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mainz 05 and 2.17 for Bayer Leverkusen.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Result & Final Score
Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 36%, draw 26%, Bayer Leverkusen 38%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.