St. Pauli II 1-5 Werder Bremen II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.57
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
49%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.68
Over 2.5
66%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.28
No
38%
3.34
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
30%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
35%
-3.6pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.0pp
49%
Away Win
43%
+5.6pp
34%
Under 2.5
24%
+10.0pp
66%
Over 2.5
76%
-10.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
74%
-11.6pp
38%
BTTS No
26%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli II EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen II EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.46/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.48
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 481 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli II
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Werder Bremen II
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2022 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 2-1 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen II Werder Bremen II ALMBÖL
14.08.2022 Werder Bremen II Werder Bremen II 2-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
24.11.2019 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 1-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen II Werder Bremen II ALMBÖL
10.05.2014 Werder Bremen II Werder Bremen II 3-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen II swept aside St. Pauli II 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Werder Bremen II as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen II led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for St. Pauli II and 1.75 for Werder Bremen II.

What was the final score of St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II?

St. Pauli II 1-5 Werder Bremen II in the Germany - Regional League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Werder Bremen II win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli II 31%, draw 20%, Werder Bremen II 49%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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