Alcains 4-1 CF Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.15
Over
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
39%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.4pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.7pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alcains The Market 54%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Benfica The Market 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alcains
4-1
AWAY CF Benfica
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alcains vs CF Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alcains cruised past CF Benfica 4-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alcains as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Alcains had 49% of the ball to CF Benfica's 51%, shots finished 15-17.

What was the final score of Alcains vs CF Benfica?

Alcains 4-1 CF Benfica in the Portugal - Cup on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alcains vs CF Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alcains win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Alcains 44%, draw 29%, CF Benfica 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alcains), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alcains) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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