22/09/2024
·
13:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Lagoa vs U. Coimbra Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
💡 For the risk lovers:
Home Win
★★
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
32%
Draw
29%
26%
Away Win
26%
59%
Under 2.5
56%
41%
Over 2.5
44%
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
51%
BTTS No
50%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lagoa v U. Coimbra — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Lagoa
EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY
U. Coimbra
EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+14% /
+14%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
12
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
5
298 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
280 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Lagoa 2-0 U. Coimbra — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Lagoa
2-0
AWAY
U. Coimbra
36%
Ball Possession
64%
12
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
3
3
Corners
5
4
Yellow Cards
1
POST-MATCH
Lagoa vs U. Coimbra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Lagoa beat U. Coimbra 2-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Lagoa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Lagoa had 36% of the ball to U. Coimbra's 64%, shots finished 12-15.
What was the final score of Lagoa vs U. Coimbra?
Lagoa 2-0 U. Coimbra in the Portugal - Cup on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lagoa vs U. Coimbra?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lagoa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lagoa 42%, draw 32%, U. Coimbra 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lagoa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Lagoa)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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22 Sep 2024