Alpendorada 3-0 Sertanense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.6
Over
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
40%
4-5
21%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+5.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alpendorada The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sertanense The Market 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alpendorada
3-0
AWAY Sertanense
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Alpendorada vs Sertanense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alpendorada ran out comfortable winners over Sertanense 3-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Alpendorada found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Alpendorada had 49% of the ball to Sertanense's 51%, shots finished 12-6.

What was the final score of Alpendorada vs Sertanense?

Alpendorada 3-0 Sertanense in the Portugal - Cup on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alpendorada vs Sertanense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alpendorada win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alpendorada 38%, draw 28%, Sertanense 35%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alpendorada), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alpendorada) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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