Lusitania 2-1 Régua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.32
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.03
Over
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
39%
4-5
26%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Lusitania win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
57%
Home Win
71%
-14.0pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.7pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.2pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania The Market 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Régua The Market 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
445 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
2-1
AWAY Régua
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Régua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania squeezed past Régua 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lusitania as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lusitania had 63% of the ball to Régua's 37%, shots finished 9-8.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Régua?

Lusitania 2-1 Régua in the Portugal - Cup on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Régua?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 57%, draw 20%, Régua 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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