Municipal Liberia 1-0 San Carlos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Costa Rica - Premier League, 22 Sep 2025

📅22/09/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-0.5pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.8pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Municipal Liberia EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY San Carlos EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.99/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.86
+16% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
398 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Municipal Liberia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY San Carlos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2025 San Carlos San Carlos 1-0 HT 0-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
20.11.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 1-2 HT 1-0 San Carlos San Carlos KOSTA
28.07.2024 San Carlos San Carlos 1-2 HT 0-2 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
25.04.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 3-3 HT 1-0 San Carlos San Carlos KOSTA
14.01.2024 San Carlos San Carlos 3-2 HT 1-1 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
27.11.2023 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 0-1 HT 0-0 San Carlos San Carlos KOSTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Municipal Liberia
1-0
AWAY San Carlos
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Municipal Liberia vs San Carlos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Municipal Liberia nicked a narrow win over San Carlos 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Municipal Liberia as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Municipal Liberia had 46% of the ball to San Carlos's 54%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Carlos led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Municipal Liberia and 1.83 for San Carlos.

What was the final score of Municipal Liberia vs San Carlos?

Municipal Liberia 1-0 San Carlos in the Costa Rica - Premier League on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Municipal Liberia vs San Carlos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Municipal Liberia win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Municipal Liberia 56%, draw 21%, San Carlos 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Municipal Liberia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Municipal Liberia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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