Chester 0-1 Buxton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.8
Over 2.5
40%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
3.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.89
6+ Goals
8%
17.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 34% vs market 27.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.2pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chester EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Buxton EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.45/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.47
-19% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
380 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chester
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Buxton
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 Buxton Buxton 1-4 HT 1-1 Chester Chester İCON
16.01.2024 Chester Chester 0-1 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
29.04.2023 Chester Chester 4-0 HT 2-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
24.09.2022 Buxton Buxton 0-0 HT 0-0 Chester Chester İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chester
0-1
AWAY Buxton
72% Ball Possession 28%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chester vs Buxton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buxton edged past Chester 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Chester at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Chester had 72% of the ball to Buxton's 28%, shots finished 17-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chester had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chester and 0.50 for Buxton.

What was the final score of Chester vs Buxton?

Chester 0-1 Buxton in the England - Conference on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chester vs Buxton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chester win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Chester 50%, draw 26%, Buxton 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chester) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chester) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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