Al Gharafa 1-2 Al Wasl Dubai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
33%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
30%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
33%
4.19
1/2
4%
24.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
7%
6.47
X/2
13%
5.15
X/X
9%
5.21
2/1
4%
28.5
2/2
16%
3.04
2/X
7%
12.65
Value flag · 1/1 at 4.19 — our 33% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
33%
+11.7pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
33%
Away Win
42%
-9.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Wasl Dubai EU Bookmakers 46%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
0.59/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.27
-8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
267 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 81%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
17.7 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Gharafa
1-2
AWAY Al Wasl Dubai
1.29 xG 2.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
240 Passes 347
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Al Wasl Dubai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Wasl Dubai squeezed past Al Gharafa 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Al Gharafa at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Al Gharafa had 44% of the ball to Al Wasl Dubai's 56%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.29 to 2.46.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Al Wasl Dubai?

Al Gharafa 1-2 Al Wasl Dubai in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Al Wasl Dubai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 45%, draw 22%, Al Wasl Dubai 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Gharafa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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