Esteghlal FC 0-1 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.91
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
50%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
4.59
2-3 Goals
35%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 31% vs market 17.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
11.9
1/2
5%
21.4
1/X
5%
20.05
X/1
10%
15.5
X/2
14%
3.55
X/X
11%
7.14
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.64
2/X
10%
19.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
14%
+10.4pp
26%
Draw
18%
+7.1pp
50%
Away Win
68%
-17.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.9pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esteghlal FC EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 72%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.86/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.58
-52% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +30%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 81%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
17.8 Crosses 18.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esteghlal FC
0-1
AWAY Al Nassr
0.40 xG 2.09
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 8
282 Passes 570
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
8 Box Touches 28
8 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Esteghlal FC vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr squeezed past Esteghlal FC 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Esteghlal FC had 35% of the ball to Al Nassr's 65%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.40 to 2.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Nassr's control.

What was the final score of Esteghlal FC vs Al Nassr?

Esteghlal FC 0-1 Al Nassr in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esteghlal FC vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Esteghlal FC 24%, draw 26%, Al Nassr 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AŞMP More AFC Sampiyonlar League
22 Oct 2024
13:00 Shanghai Port vs Central Coast Mariners Analysis →
13:00 Gwangju vs Johor DT Analysis →
15:00 Buriram United vs Pohang Steelers Analysis →
15:00 Shandong Taishan vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
19:00 Al Gharafa vs Al Wasl Dubai Analysis →