Gwangju 3-1 Johor DT — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.47
1/2
4%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
13%
5.51
X/2
17%
5.93
X/X
9%
4.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
2/2
13%
3.85
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+4.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Johor DT EU Bookmakers 38%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
2.66/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.66
+150% / -61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -29%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
10.0 Crosses 1.0
6.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
3-1
AWAY Johor DT
0.49 xG 1.20
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 13
231 Passes 301
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Johor DT
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju saw off Johor DT 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gwangju as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gwangju had 43% of the ball to Johor DT's 57%, shots finished 6-19, expected goals 0.49 to 1.20 — the balance of chances actually favoured Johor DT.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Johor DT?

Gwangju 3-1 Johor DT in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Johor DT?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 43%, draw 23%, Johor DT 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gwangju), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gwangju) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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