Shanghai Port 3-2 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.62
2-3 Goals
40%
2.02
4-5 Goals
25%
2.63
6+ Goals
11%
6.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.72
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1
21%
3.8
X/2
8%
13.55
X/X
9%
7.5
2/1
6%
19.45
2/2
11%
9.43
2/X
7%
17.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-13.6pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.0pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+9.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shanghai Port EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.43/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.49
+26% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +27%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
409 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.4 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shanghai Port
3-2
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
2.21 xG 0.65
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
408 Passes 391
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shanghai Port vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Port edged past Central Coast Mariners 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Shanghai Port as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Shanghai Port had 51% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 49%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.21 to 0.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Shanghai Port's control.

What was the final score of Shanghai Port vs Central Coast Mariners?

Shanghai Port 3-2 Central Coast Mariners in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shanghai Port vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shanghai Port win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Shanghai Port 52%, draw 23%, Central Coast Mariners 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shanghai Port), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shanghai Port) ✓ Over 2.5
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