Bastia 1-2 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Jan 2024

Bastia
1-2 HT 1-0
Caen
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Bastia vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.4
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.94
6+ Goals
10%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.12
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
12%
4.47
X/2
13%
6.51
X/X
10%
3.76
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
8%
5.31
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
14.35
Value flag · 2/X at 14.35 — our 12% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bastia v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.31/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.31
-13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
22.1 Crosses 18.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Bastia vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bastia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Caen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.87 xG 1.58
49% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
332 Passes 353
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
03.02.2023 Caen Caen 3-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
26.12.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
26.02.2022 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 1-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
18.09.2021 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
05.02.2019 Bastia Bastia 2-2 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FRK

Bastia 1-2 Caen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
1-2
AWAY Caen
1.63 xG 2.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
336 Passes 278
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen edged past Bastia 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bastia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bastia had 54% of the ball to Caen's 46%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.63 to 2.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bastia and 1.50 for Caen.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Caen?

Bastia 1-2 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bastia 44%, draw 29%, Caen 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bastia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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