Pau 0-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Jan 2024

Pau
0-1 HT 0-1
Saint-Etienne
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Pau vs Saint-Etienne Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.17
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
18%
6.04
X/2
18%
5.08
X/X
9%
4.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
30.5
2/2
17%
3.27
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.4pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pau v Saint-Etienne — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.47/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.62
+15% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -23%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 75%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
18.2 Crosses 17.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Pau vs Saint-Etienne Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.87 xG 1.86
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
362 Passes 431
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-2 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
25.02.2023 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-0 HT 1-0 Pau Pau FR2
05.09.2022 Pau Pau 2-2 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR2

Pau 0-1 Saint-Etienne — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
0-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
0.47 xG 1.61
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 18
0 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
407 Passes 395
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pau vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne nicked a narrow win over Pau 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 23% / 40% — and on the day Saint-Etienne made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pau had 51% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 49%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.47 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pau and 1.67 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Pau vs Saint-Etienne?

Pau 0-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pau 37%, draw 23%, Saint-Etienne 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saint-Etienne) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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