Willem II 2-3 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.38
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
8.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.5
X/1
19%
4.14
X/2
8%
9.26
X/X
10%
5.84
2/1
6%
21.0
2/2
10%
6.57
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.3pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.1pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +12%
1.92/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.39
-4% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +30%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.8 Crosses 16.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Roda
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 1.12
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 Roda Roda 0-1 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
19.05.2023 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
06.01.2023 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
25.02.2018 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL
01.02.2018 Willem II Willem II 2-2 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOK
16.09.2017 Roda Roda 1-3 HT 1-3 Willem II Willem II HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
2-3
AWAY Roda
1.19 xG 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
443 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda edged past Willem II 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Willem II at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Willem II had 56% of the ball to Roda's 44%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.19 to 0.50 — the balance of chances actually favoured Willem II.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Willem II and 0.83 for Roda.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Roda?

Willem II 2-3 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Willem II 53%, draw 23%, Roda 24%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Willem II), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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