Vaduz 0-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 23 Feb 2025

Vaduz
0-1 HT 0-1
Aarau
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2024/2025

Vaduz vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.07
Over 2.5
60%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.76
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
2.97
6+ Goals
13%
9.46
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.97 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
47%
Away Win
44%
+3.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.4pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vaduz v Aarau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vaduz EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 48%
+13% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +15%
1.52/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.37/1.31
+21% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
12.9 Crosses 11.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Vaduz vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vaduz
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aarau
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 1.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
279 Passes 358
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-0 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
20.09.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-5 HT 2-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
03.05.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
26.01.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
22.10.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 2-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
25.09.2023 Aarau Aarau 3-2 HT 1-2 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2

Vaduz 0-1 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vaduz
0-1
AWAY Aarau
0.83 xG 2.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 12
0 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
287 Passes 245
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vaduz vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau nicked a narrow win over Vaduz 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vaduz had 54% of the ball to Aarau's 46%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.83 to 2.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vaduz and 2.00 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Vaduz vs Aarau?

Vaduz 0-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vaduz vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Vaduz 29%, draw 24%, Aarau 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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