Young Boys 1-0 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.96
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
6+ Goals
13%
10.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.68
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
5%
12.6
X/1
15%
4.87
X/2
11%
7.52
X/X
12%
5.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.55
2/2
11%
5.27
2/X
8%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.2pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Young Boys EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 31%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.77/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.59
+28% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
24.9 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Young Boys
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lugano
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.52 xG 1.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
348 Passes 326
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2024 Young Boys Young Boys 2-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
27.10.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 2-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
11.05.2024 Young Boys Young Boys 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.02.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-3 HT 1-1 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
29.10.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
24.09.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 4-1 HT 3-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Young Boys
1-0
AWAY Lugano
1.01 xG 0.94
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
256 Passes 398
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Young Boys vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Young Boys edged past Lugano 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Young Boys as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Young Boys had 41% of the ball to Lugano's 59%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.01 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Young Boys and 1.50 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Young Boys vs Lugano?

Young Boys 1-0 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Young Boys vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Young Boys win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Young Boys 47%, draw 26%, Lugano 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Young Boys) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Young Boys) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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