Novara 1-0 Renate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
25%
2.83
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.45
Over 2.5
45%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
5.65
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
32%
-7.0pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
65%
-9.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
35%
+9.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Renate EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +28%
1.48/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.12
+15% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Renate
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.10.2024 Renate Renate 0-1 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
10.08.2024 Renate Renate 2-2 HT 0-2 Novara Novara İTCK
06.03.2024 Novara Novara 1-1 HT 0-0 Renate Renate İTC
28.10.2023 Renate Renate 2-2 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
23.12.2022 Renate Renate 1-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
03.09.2022 Novara Novara 3-1 HT 0-1 Renate Renate İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
1-0
AWAY Renate
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novara vs Renate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara nicked a narrow win over Renate 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Novara as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Novara had 41% of the ball to Renate's 59%, shots finished 5-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novara had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Novara and 1.17 for Renate.

What was the final score of Novara vs Renate?

Novara 1-0 Renate in the Italy - Serie C on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Renate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Novara 44%, draw 25%, Renate 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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