Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.29
6+ Goals
10%
22.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.82
1/2
12%
28.0
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
9%
7.19
X/2
9%
4.54
X/X
14%
4.09
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.86
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 49%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +12%
1.29/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/0.81
-15% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
290 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 83%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
22.8 Crosses 16.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Toulouse
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.76 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 Passes 384
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
10.03.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 1-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
05.11.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
21.02.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 4-0 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
13.09.2021 Le Havre Le Havre 1-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
04.05.2021 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
1-4
AWAY Toulouse
0.77 xG 2.38
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
382 Passes 337
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 26
30 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse swept aside Le Havre 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Le Havre had 54% of the ball to Toulouse's 46%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.77 to 2.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Le Havre and 1.50 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Toulouse?

Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 27%, draw 27%, Toulouse 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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