Nantes 3-1 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Feb 2025

Nantes
3-1 HT 1-0
Lens
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.81
6+ Goals
11%
17.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.19
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
11%
6.89
X/2
14%
4.83
X/X
12%
4.32
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.99
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 48%
-13% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.24/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.28
-33% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +32%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 82%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.0 Crosses 18.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lens
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.04 xG 2.41
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
318 Passes 494
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 Lens Lens 3-2 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
03.02.2024 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
28.10.2023 Lens Lens 4-0 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
01.03.2023 Nantes Nantes 2-1 HT 1-1 Lens Lens FRK
19.02.2023 Lens Lens 3-1 HT 2-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
18.09.2022 Nantes Nantes 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
3-1
AWAY Lens
4.41 xG 1.77
35% Ball Possession 65%
17 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 11
263 Passes 516
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
30 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nantes vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nantes saw off Lens 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nantes had 35% of the ball to Lens's 65%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 4.41 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nantes and 2.00 for Lens.

What was the final score of Nantes vs Lens?

Nantes 3-1 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Nantes 32%, draw 26%, Lens 43%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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